This was a cyclical week. Crude and the industrial complex led higher on genuine supply signals while the dollar sat still — the mirror image of the macro-led moves of recent weeks. With DXY essentially flat, the tape was driven by physical fundamentals rather than FX, and precious metals were left to consolidate after their earlier correction.
Crude did the heavy lifting. A fragile Iran ceasefire began to unravel, re-injecting a geopolitical supply-risk premium just as fuel demand and weather risks firmed the near-term balance. Brent jumped 5.86% to $76.01/bbl and WTI 3.96% to $71.41/bbl, recovering much of the ground lost in late June — a supply-side repricing rather than a demand story, since Chinese activity signals stayed soft.
Base metals firmed broadly, and for once the move was backed by the warehouses. LME cash stocks drew across the complex — copper inventories fell to 306,500t from ~319,000t a week earlier, with aluminium, zinc and tin all lower — a visible physical tightening. Aluminium rose 2.47% to $3,156/t, nickel 1.83% to $16,410/t, zinc 1.58% to $3,602/t and copper 0.83% to $13,408/t, the metal-by-metal gains pointing to real demand meeting drawing supply.
Precious metals moved from liquidation to consolidation. Gold was near-unchanged, down 0.21% to $4,104.10/oz, and silver eased 1.37% to $59.81/oz as the safe-haven bid faded into the risk-on tone; the gold–silver ratio ticked up to ~69 from ~68. With the dollar flat, this reads as bullion catching its breath after the spring’s big moves rather than a fresh trend down — the official-sector anchor remains in the background.
For the week ahead, watch (i) whether the Iran ceasefire holds or frays further — the swing factor for how much of the fresh crude premium sticks; (ii) US inflation and Fed communication, which will decide whether the dollar stays becalmed or resumes a trend; and (iii) LME inventory trends, where continued draws in copper, aluminium and zinc would validate the physical-tightening thesis now doing the work in the base complex.
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent$/bbl | 85.40 | ▼ -20.6% | ▼ -17.6% | ▲ +36.2% | ▲ +19.4% |
| Dubai$/bbl | 77.70 | ▼ -18.0% | ▼ -15.5% | ▲ +25.3% | ▲ +13.4% |
| WTI$/bbl | 81.90 | ▼ -17.4% | ▼ -10.2% | ▲ +41.5% | ▲ +21.3% |
| Crude oil, avg$/bbl | 81.70 | ▼ -18.6% | ▼ -14.5% | ▲ +34.2% | ▲ +18.2% |
| Coal, Australian$/mt | 138.50 | ▲ +1.2% | ▼ -0.1% | ▲ +28.6% | ▲ +27.1% |
| Coal, S. African$/mt | 96.30 | ▲ +0.7% | ▲ +2.7% | ▲ +5.9% | ▲ +2.7% |
| Natural gas, US$/mmbtu | 3.15 | ▲ +7.5% | ▲ +2.9% | ▼ -25.9% | ▲ +4.3% |
| Natural gas, Europe$/mmbtu | 15.17 | ▼ -6.2% | ▼ -15.3% | ▲ +60.0% | ▲ +22.6% |
| LNG, Japan$/mmbtu | 12.83 | ▼ -0.4% | ▲ +12.3% | ▲ +13.3% | ▲ +5.4% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phosphate rock$/mt | 156.90 | ▲ +2.9% | ▲ +2.9% | ▲ +2.9% | ▲ +2.9% |
| DAP$/mt | 783.80 | ▲ +1.9% | ▲ +19.1% | ▲ +24.9% | ▲ +9.6% |
| TSP$/mt | 735.60 | ▲ +3.1% | ▲ +31.8% | ▲ +36.6% | ▲ +14.7% |
| Urea$/mt | 453.10 | ▼ -41.2% | ▼ -37.6% | ▲ +15.4% | ▲ +7.8% |
| Potassium chloride$/mt | 402.50 | ▼ -0.6% | ▲ +5.8% | ▲ +12.3% | ▲ +10.9% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum$/mt | 3,439 | ▼ -6.2% | ▲ +2.0% | ▲ +19.6% | ▲ +36.1% |
| Copper$/mt | 13,552 | ▲ +0.1% | ▲ +8.2% | ▲ +15.0% | ▲ +37.8% |
| Iron ore$/dmtu | 100.80 | ▼ -7.2% | ▼ -3.5% | ▼ -3.6% | ▲ +9.2% |
| Lead$/mt | 1,946 | ▼ -2.3% | ▲ +3.6% | ▲ +0.3% | ▼ -1.4% |
| Nickel$/mt | 17,588 | ▼ -6.5% | ▲ +3.0% | ▲ +18.2% | ▲ +17.2% |
| Tin$/mt | 53,037 | ▼ -1.0% | ▲ +12.1% | ▲ +28.7% | ▲ +63.0% |
| Zinc$/mt | 3,539 | ▲ +1.6% | ▲ +11.2% | ▲ +11.7% | ▲ +33.3% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold$/troy oz | 4,228 | ▼ -7.8% | ▼ -12.9% | ▼ -1.9% | ▲ +26.1% |
| Silver$/troy oz | 66.70 | ▼ -14.5% | ▼ -14.4% | ▲ +7.1% | ▲ +85.3% |
| Platinum$/troy oz | 1,726 | ▼ -13.6% | ▼ -15.6% | ▼ -8.8% | ▲ +38.0% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa$/kg | 4.40 | ▲ +5.8% | ▲ +35.8% | ▼ -23.9% | ▼ -47.6% |
| Coffee, Arabica$/kg | 6.79 | ▼ -2.3% | ▼ -7.9% | ▼ -19.2% | ▼ -15.2% |
| Coffee, Robusta$/kg | 3.73 | ▲ +1.6% | ▼ -4.4% | ▼ -11.2% | ▼ -13.9% |
| Cotton, A Index$/kg | 1.90 | ▼ -6.4% | ▲ +11.8% | ▲ +16.6% | ▲ +9.8% |
| Rubber, RSS3$/kg | 2.86 | ▲ +6.3% | ▲ +19.7% | ▲ +38.8% | ▲ +32.4% |
| Rubber, TSR20$/kg | 2.25 | ▲ +1.8% | ▲ +15.4% | ▲ +29.3% | ▲ +39.8% |
Crude. Brent and WTI futures front-month settlements from ICE / NYMEX via Yahoo Finance, 5Y daily history with the prior Friday’s close as the weekly reference.
Precious metals. COMEX active-month gold and silver futures settlements via Yahoo Finance.
Base metals. LME official cash settlement for Cu, Al, Zn, Ni, Sn and Pb, sourced from Westmetall (5Y daily history).
USD. ICE Dollar Index (DXY) futures, daily close, via Yahoo Finance.
Pink Sheet. World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook — monthly USD spot prices across energy, metals, fertilisers, precious metals and softs.
Refreshed every Monday morning using the prior Friday’s close. This week, US futures markets were closed on Friday 3 July for Independence Day, so crude, precious and DXY reference Thursday 2 July’s settlement; LME base metals reference Friday 3 July’s cash.
Every weekly call is built around three lenses:
(i) Supply vs. demand. The physical balance — mine output, OPEC+ discipline, refining margins, smelter restarts, inventories — sets the medium-term anchor.
(ii) Physical vs. financial flows. Positioning, ETF holdings, COT data and term structure tell us where the marginal price is being set and whether moves are sustainable.
(iii) USD cross-check. Every commodity is quoted in dollars; we always read the move against DXY to separate genuine commodity strength from FX translation.
All prices are in US dollars.
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