Crude unwound a portion of the prior week's geopolitical risk premium, with Brent fell 5.24% to $103.54/bbl and WTI fell 8.37% to $96.60/bbl as diplomatic chatter around the Middle East cooled and physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz held up. Spreads remained backwardated, signalling that prompt tightness has not fully reset even as the headline price retreated.
Precious metals consolidated after a strong run: gold settled at $4,521/oz (-0.76%), with silver at $75.89/oz (-1.64%). The gold–silver ratio drifted higher as the white metal lagged, but the structural bid for bullion — central-bank accumulation, real-yield compression and FX diversification — remains intact.
Base metals were quietly constructive. Aluminium led with +1.95%, supported by smelter discipline and resilient demand from grid and EV builds; copper printed essentially flat at $13,545/t as LME stocks continued to draw. The complex remains tethered to China's stimulus pulse and the dollar, with DXY little changed near 99.32.
For the week ahead, watch (i) any escalation or de-escalation in the Iran–US channel and the implications for Brent's term structure; (ii) US PCE and the Fed speak calendar for the dollar's next leg; and (iii) Chinese property and credit prints for the marginal demand impulse into base metals.
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil, Brent$/bbl | 120.42 | ▲ +16.1% | ▲ +80.4% | ▲ +86.3% | ▲ +77.8% |
| Crude oil, Dubai$/bbl | 92.69 | ▲ +0.9% | ▲ +45.0% | ▲ +44.2% | ▲ +38.6% |
| Crude oil, WTI$/bbl | 98.63 | ▲ +8.2% | ▲ +63.6% | ▲ +63.9% | ▲ +56.4% |
| Crude oil, average$/bbl | 103.91 | ▲ +8.7% | ▲ +63.3% | ▲ +64.8% | ▲ +57.7% |
| Coal, Australian$/mt | 130.92 | ▼ -5.5% | ▲ +19.3% | ▲ +21.8% | ▲ +32.8% |
| Coal, South African **$/mt | 94.78 | ▲ +1.0% | ▲ +4.7% | ▲ +3.5% | ▼ -0.8% |
| Natural gas, US$/mmbtu | 2.77 | ▼ -9.5% | ▼ -63.5% | ▼ -13.4% | ▼ -18.6% |
| Natural gas, Europe$/mmbtu | 15.41 | ▼ -13.9% | ▲ +31.1% | ▲ +41.5% | ▲ +33.0% |
| Liquefied natural gas, Japan$/mmbtu | 11.67 | ▲ +2.2% | ▲ +1.6% | ▲ +5.1% | ▼ -7.9% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phosphate rock$/mt | 152.50 | ▲ +0.0% | ▲ +0.0% | ▲ +0.0% | ▲ +0.0% |
| DAP$/mt | 725.25 | ▲ +10.2% | ▲ +17.1% | ▼ -3.8% | ▲ +14.2% |
| TSP$/mt | 658.13 | ▲ +17.9% | ▲ +24.4% | ▼ -0.1% | ▲ +32.7% |
| Urea $/mt | 856.88 | ▲ +18.1% | ▲ +106.3% | ▲ +117.3% | ▲ +121.5% |
| Potassium chloride **$/mt | 401.25 | ▲ +5.4% | ▲ +9.6% | ▲ +14.0% | ▲ +14.0% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum$/mt | 3,599.85 | ▲ +6.7% | ▲ +14.6% | ▲ +28.9% | ▲ +51.8% |
| Copper$/mt | 12,950.96 | ▲ +3.4% | ▼ -0.5% | ▲ +20.6% | ▲ +41.1% |
| Iron ore, cfr spot$/dmtu | 106.05 | ▲ +1.5% | ▲ +0.5% | ▲ +2.4% | ▲ +9.1% |
| Lead$/mt | 1,929.85 | ▲ +2.8% | ▼ -3.2% | ▼ -1.9% | ▲ +1.4% |
| Nickel$/mt | 17,961.60 | ▲ +5.2% | ▲ +1.1% | ▲ +19.0% | ▲ +18.8% |
| Tin$/mt | 48,805.89 | ▲ +3.1% | ▼ -1.5% | ▲ +35.5% | ▲ +49.9% |
| Zinc$/mt | 3,363.81 | ▲ +5.7% | ▲ +4.7% | ▲ +6.7% | ▲ +28.3% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold$/troy oz | 4,721.42 | ▼ -2.8% | ▼ -0.7% | ▲ +16.3% | ▲ +46.7% |
| Silver$/troy oz | 75.86 | ▼ -2.6% | ▼ -17.6% | ▲ +53.4% | ▲ +135.4% |
| Platinum$/troy oz | 2,027.66 | ▼ -0.9% | ▼ -16.7% | ▲ +25.5% | ▲ +111.5% |
| Commodity | Latest | MoM | 3-M | 6-M | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa$/kg | 3.40 | ▲ +4.8% | ▼ -31.7% | ▼ -42.9% | ▼ -58.3% |
| Coffee, Arabica$/kg | 7.30 | ▼ -0.9% | ▼ -9.0% | ▼ -18.0% | ▼ -15.4% |
| Coffee, Robusta$/kg | 3.63 | ▼ -6.9% | ▼ -14.5% | ▼ -23.4% | ▼ -33.1% |
| Cotton, A Index$/kg | 1.90 | ▲ +11.9% | ▲ +16.0% | ▲ +13.7% | ▲ +10.3% |
| Rubber, RSS3$/kg | 2.51 | ▲ +4.8% | ▲ +16.9% | ▲ +25.1% | ▲ +17.9% |
| Rubber, TSR20 **$/kg | 2.06 | ▲ +5.2% | ▲ +11.5% | ▲ +20.1% | ▲ +20.5% |
Crude. Brent and WTI futures front-month settlements from ICE / NYMEX via Yahoo Finance, 5Y daily history with prior Friday's close as the weekly reference.
Precious metals. COMEX active-month gold and silver futures settlements via Yahoo Finance.
Base metals. LME official cash settlement for Cu, Al, Zn, Ni, Sn and Pb, sourced from Westmetall (5Y daily history).
USD. ICE Dollar Index (DXY) futures, daily close, via Yahoo Finance.
Pink Sheet. World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook — monthly USD spot prices across energy, metals, fertilisers, precious metals and softs.
Refreshed every Monday morning using the prior Friday's close.
Every weekly call is built around three lenses:
(i) Supply vs. demand. The physical balance — mine output, OPEC+ discipline, refining margins, smelter restarts, inventories — sets the medium-term anchor.
(ii) Physical vs. financial flows. Positioning, ETF holdings, COT data and term structure tell us where the marginal price is being set and whether moves are sustainable.
(iii) USD cross-check. Every commodity is quoted in dollars; we always read the move against DXY to separate genuine commodity strength from FX translation.
All prices are in US dollars.
Bespoke coverage across crude, metals, agri and softs — scoped to your portfolio or treasury mandate.
